TO: Indian Gaming Association Member Tribes FROM: David Z. Bean, Chairman Jason Giles, Executive Director RE: ALERT: Ninth Circuit Rules Against Prediction Market Sports Event Contracts Date: August 28, 2026

On August 28, 2026, the Ninth Circuit issued a ruling in favor of Nevada’s state gaming officials in an appeal brought by prediction market, KalshiEX, LLC (“Kalshi”) to overturn the lower court’s decision to dissolve a preliminary injunction against state regulatory crackdowns on sports event contracts offered on prediction markets. In its opinion for the case, KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad, the Ninth Circuit held that Kalshi’s argument relied upon an overbroad interpretation of the Commodities Exchange Act (“CEA”) and described Kalshi’s denial that sports events contracts are sports bets as “disingenuous” based upon the plain language definition of “wager” and Kalshi’s own marketing. The Court further remanded the case to the lower court to consider the existing challenges to Kalshi’s election-based contracts. 

This Ninth Circuit ruling is a win for state and tribal gaming regulators who have been speaking out against sports event contracts operating as unregulated sports betting platforms for the past two years. This ruling also appears to create a circuit split between the Ninth Circuit and the Third Circuit, which ruled in favor of Kalshi’s arguments in April 2026. In light of the circuit split and the apparent confusion surrounding sports event contracts, this matter is likely to reach the Supreme Court. A more detailed analysis is forthcoming, but for now, this ruling may serve as a beacon of hope for the tribal gaming industry and tribal sovereignty more broadly.

A copy of the KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad Opinion may be found here: 

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72237443/200/1/kalshiex-llc-v-assad-et-al/.

Please contact Danielle Her Many Horses at dhermanyhorses@indiangaming.orgwith any questions or concerns with this Alert.