TO: Indian Gaming Association Member Tribes and Associate Members FROM: David Z. Bean, Chairman Jason Giles, Executive Director RE: Outlining the Fight to Stop Sports Betting Through Prediction Markets Date: April 8, 2026

Since 1985, the Indian Gaming Association’s mission has united tribal governments behind the mission of protecting tribal sovereignty and the inherent right of Indian tribes to conduct gaming to build tribal economies and strengthen tribal governments. Today, prediction markets pose the most direct threat to that mission in decades. Stopping the blight of sports betting through prediction markets is the sovereignty fight of our generation.

The most obvious threat of prediction markets is the ongoing economic impact on Indian gaming. However, prediction markets also actively violate the sovereign decision making of all 575 federally recognized Indian tribes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), by permitting prediction markets to offer online sports betting nationwide to any person 18 years of age, violates the authority of every tribal government to regulate or prohibit online sports betting within their jurisdictions, and violates hundreds of tribal-state gaming compacts.
This memo shares details about our opponents and outlines the battle ahead.

What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are corporate entities registered with the CFTC that offer bets on the outcomes of sporting events and other products. The most prolific prediction markets registered with the CFTC that offers gambling on the outcome of sports are KalshiEX LLC (“Kalshi”), Polymarket, Crytpo.com, Robinhood, Draft Kings and Fan Duel.

Prediction markets recognized regulatory and enforcement weaknesses at the CFTC and have quickly exploited them. The first sport event contracts that CFTC inaction enabled were offered by in January 2025. In February of 2025, prediction markets took in approximately $1.3 million in betting volume on Super Bowl LIX. One year later, prediction markets reported approximately $3.1 billion in total volume wagered on Super Bowl LX, which took place on February 8, 2026. Kalshi alone reached a monthly trading volume of $10.4 billion in February of 2026.

Because CFTC regulations allow prediction markets to self-certify event contracts without pre-clearance from the agency, they launch gambling products, generate profits, and then litigate in court later. This litigation-driven business model has resulted in dozens of pending lawsuits.

Prediction markets are using their growing illegal profits to hire more attorneys, lobbyists, and public relations firms. They have also formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which hired two former Members of Congress to lobby against the enforcement of tribal and state gambling laws and for federal preemption.

What is CFTC?

Congress established the CFTC through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974. The agency is charged with regulating futures and derivatives markets to promote market integrity, protect market participants, and ensure the proper functioning of price discovery and risk management mechanisms.

The Commodity Exchange Act (“CEA”), codified at 7 U.S.C. § 1 et seq., provides the CFTC with jurisdiction over “contracts of sale of a commodity for future delivery” and related derivatives. Congress has consistently reaffirmed that the purpose of this jurisdiction is to regulate markets that serve bona fide hedging and price-discovery functions that serve an inherent economic interest, not to authorize speculative gambling on the outcomes of events unrelated to economic commodities.

Despite this mandate, the CFTC has essentially declared by administrative fiat that online gambling shall be available in every state and on every Indian reservation in the nation. In 2025, inaction by the CFTC led to the explosion of sports betting through prediction markets. Since the seating of Chairman Michael Selig, the CFTC has become an active proponent of sports betting, filing legal briefs opposing the enforcement of tribal and state gambling laws, and issuing a notice of proposed rulemaking to weaken the agency’s existing regulations.

Outlining Our Strategy to Stop Sports Betting Through Prediction Markets

Over the past year, IGA has worked to inform and unite our Member Tribes and Indian Country against prediction markets and their illegal and unregulated intrusions into sports betting and other forms of casino gambling. We have also worked to forge a coalition with state governments, commercial gaming interests, and problem gambling organizations to stand united against prediction markets.

The impact of prediction markets on tribal gaming was a major focus at IGA’s Tradeshow and Convention in San Diego last week. During our Membership Meeting and through dozens of conference sessions, we heard from our Member Tribes and their attorneys and advisors, delved into the details of the prediction market battle, and refined our strategy going forward. Through these meetings, we armed our Member Tribes and your partners with the information needed to take on this fight.

The IGA Board took decisive action to protect what generations before us fought to build. Our Board adopted a formal resolution opposing the CFTC’s efforts to foster illegal sports betting through prediction markets. The resolution underscores IGA’s position that these activities constitute gambling and fall exclusively under the jurisdiction of tribal and state governments. The resolution calls on Congress to clarify that sports contracts are gambling activities regulated by tribes and states. The resolution also urges tribal governments nationwide to submit formal comments opposing the CFTC’s proposed rulemaking ahead of the April 30 deadline.

IGA’s resolution reflects the multi-layered battle that we are facing in the courts, in Congress, with the Administration, and in the court of public opinion.

Federal Court Challenges.

There are more than two dozen federal court cases relating to the legality of sports betting through prediction markets. In addition, On March 17, 2026, the Arizona Attorney General filed criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing the DCM of operating an illegal gambling business in the State. The 20-count criminal information alleges that Kalshi accepted bets from Arizona residents on a wide range of events in violation of Arizona law. And on April 2, 2026, the CFTC filed its own lawsuits seeking to prevent the States of Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois from enforcing their local gambling laws.

IGA has signed on to multiple amicus briefs in support of tribal sovereignty, IGRA, and existing tribal-state gaming compacts.

We have seen mixed results in the courts. A growing number of courts (Nevada, Ohio, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, and Arizona) have rejected arguments by the CFTC and prediction markets that federal law preempts the enforcement of tribal and state gambling laws. However, on April 6, 2026, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, ruling that its sports-event prediction contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC, preempting the enforcement of New Jersey’s state-level gambling laws.

Because these federal court cases remain at the pre-trial phase, it will take years for this issue to reach a final determination by the United States Supreme Court. As a result, we must continue to engage our battle against prediction markets on multiple fronts.

Legislative Efforts to Prohibit Gambling Through Prediction Markets.

Thanks to our work over the past year, multiple bipartisan bills have been introduced in Congress to amend the CEA to further clarify that entities registered with the CFTC are prohibited from offering swaps or trades relating to sports betting.

While IGA supports many of these bills, we are focusing our support on H.R. 7840, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, sponsored by Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) and co-sponsored by Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA), and S.4160, the Prediction Markets are Gambling Act, sponsored by Senator Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Senator John Curtis (R-UT). These bills would reaffirm existing tribal and state government authority to regulate or prohibit sports betting within their jurisdictions.

H.R. 7840 and S.4160 have been referred to the House Committee on Agriculture and the Senate Agriculture Committee respectively. IGA is working with these committees to schedule a hearing on these bills and bring them to a vote.

In addition, we are exploring other legislative opportunities to amend the CEA to stop sports betting through prediction markets. In December of 2025, IGA worked with Rep. Gabe Vasquez who offered an amendment to the 2026 Farm Bill that would have accomplished our goal. The Vasquez amendment was ultimately withdrawn, but the congressman did receive a commitment from the Agriculture Committee Chairman to focus on this issue during an upcoming Committee hearing on CFTC Reauthorization.
CFTC Proposed Rulemaking.

Another front in this fight is emerging at the administrative level. On March 12, 2026, the CFTC published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (“ANPRM”) to seek public comment on prediction markets. The proposal asks questions about the CFTC’s statutory core principles and regulations relating to prediction markets, the types of event contracts that may be prohibited as contrary to the public interest, cost-benefit considerations related to prediction markets, and other topics. The ANPRM is a preliminary step – not an actual proposed rule. However, the CFTC will use comments received to develop a proposal to amend regulations that apply to prediction markets.

Given the CFTC’s clear support for sports betting through prediction markets, IGA views the proposal as a thinly veiled attempt and first step towards weakening the agency’s existing regulations to help prediction markets in court battles.

Comments to the CFTC’s ANPRM should remind the agency that it has conducted a public interest review and that its existing regulations already prohibit registered entities from offering swaps or other transactions related to gambling.

In 2010, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in response to the 2008 financial crisis. The law amended the CEA, including a “special rule” for CFTC review and approval of certain event contracts and swaps. The special rule provides that the CFTC may determine that “agreements, contracts, or transactions are contrary to the public interest if [they] involve – activity that is unlawful under any federal or state law; terrorism; assassination; war; gaming; or other similar activity determined by the Commission by rule or regulation, to be contrary to the public interest.”

On July 27, 2011, the CFTC published a regulation implementing the special rule, expressly providing that “[a] registered entity shall not list for trading or accept for clearing on or through the registered entity any of the following:

(1) An agreement, contract, transaction, or swap based upon an excluded commodity, as defined in Section 1a(19)(iv) of the Act, that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any State or Federal law….

See 17 C.F.R. § 40.11 Review of event contracts based upon certain excluded commodities; 76 Federal Register 44786 (July 27, 2011) (noting that the new rule’s prohibition of “gaming” contracts “is consistent with Congress’s intent to ‘prevent gambling through the futures markets’”).

Despite our general opposition to any proposal to amend the existing regulations that clearly prohibit CFTC-registered entities from offering swaps relating to gaming, IGA will submit a comment by the April 30, 2026 deadline. We will also share a draft comment for our Member Tribes to consider submitting.
Educate the Public.

The final front in this effort to stop prediction markets from offering sports betting on their platforms is the need to expand our public relations outreach. IGA will work to enhance public relations outreach on the national level targeting decisionmakers in Washington, D.C. We will continue to share story of how Indian gaming is rebuilding tribal communities and helping our neighbors, bringing more than 680,000 jobs to rural American families.

We urge our Member Tribes and regional tribal organizations to work through you public relations and communications teams to tell your story on the local level. Share stories about your incredible work as economic anchors of your regions. And inform the public about the existing and growing threat of prediction markets to these jobs and to basic services provided to your communities.

A great example of a local story.

A great example of a local story that paints this picture can be found at this link: https://sourcenm.com/2026/04/02/new-mexico-u-s-rep-vasquez-says-unregulated-sports-betting-hurting-tribal-sovereignty/
(Unregulated Sports Betting Hurting Tribal Sovereignty, Apr. 2, 2026).

Conclusion

As Chairman of the Indian Gaming Association, I commit to you that we will leave no stone unturned. We will engage in this battle on all possible fronts. We will broaden our outreach and engage in uncomfortable conversations with decisionmakers in Washington, D.C. We will lean on longstanding champions of Indian Country in Congress, and we will reach out to new lawmakers who do not have tribes in their states or districts. This is the sovereignty battle of our generation. To win this fight, it will take dedication, resources, and above all a united voice.